BY COLIN WILSON-MURPHY
Surprisingly, consumer confidence strengthened in July 2008 (consumer confidence increased 8.5% month over month). Perhaps a small increase in consumer sentiment is not terribly surprising as more consumers than any time since the first University of Michigan survey was conducted in 1946 reported that their financial situation had worsened in June 2008. “Even after the July gain, the overall level of consumer confidence is dismal and still points toward declines,” said Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
In July, the extent of the economic damage reported by consumers remained alarming. Nine-in-ten consumers thought the economy was in recession while six-in-ten consumers expected the unemployment rate to rise (unemployment currently stands at 5.5%). “The appraisals of consumers of their own finances as well as conditions in the national economy remained very negative,” Curtin said.
There is little question today that the last few years preceding the onset of what has now been dubbed the “credit crunch” was nothing short of one long credit fiesta, the combined result of a buoyant economy and robust capital markets. Low interest rates and abundant liquidity meant seemingly unrestricted access to capital for all. However, the party didn’t last for long as nine-in-ten consumers now believe the economy is in a recession, with record numbers citing unfavorable news about rising prices, lost jobs, slowing economic growth, falling stock prices, and the continuing fallout from the credit and housing crises.



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